I may have missed something but the data shows that authorized absences are decreasing and unauthorized absences are increasing - the overall attendance decreases steadily over a period of a year which shows that illness seasonality is unlikely to be a factor - although a steadily increasing, season-agnostic level of illness in the population cannot be ruled out as one amongst many possible hypotheses. However, this depends on if illness is counted as an authorized absence or not, or whether certain types of illness count and some don't etc. One needs a detailed understanding of the categorization, as well as the likely level of accuracy of the data within it.
Can such information be passed to ChatGPT to refine it's "thinking"?
Here, ChatGPT seems to focus on an annual cycle, but the data is suggesting this is a trend which extends beyond that. What happens if you ask ChatGPT to consider this?
These observations aside, it's a great tool for prototyping such things, but if money, jobs or lives depend on the results, best to have a professional check it's work before committing.
In the end, the human who signs off ChatGPT's homework is responsible, so always keep that in mind when using it. ChatGPT told me to do it will not be a defence.
Thanks Gareth - it's so good to know someone's paying attention.
In this case, ChatGPT focussed on the seasonal cycle because I asked it to. It was a short demo, so I couldn't go to the next level - which would include your points about the going term trend.
Here are all the factors it suggested may be at work. You can see that it includes references to sources, so I think if I had asked for longer term explanations it would have had a go. But it did not spontaneously offer up that possibility.
...
1. Seasonal Illnesses: During colder months, illnesses like the flu can lead to increased absences. For instance, respiratory infections are prevalent in winter, causing higher absenteeism.
2. Weather Conditions: Severe weather, such as snowstorms or heavy rainfall, can disrupt transportation and lead to school closures or increased absences. In regions like Seattle, winter storms can significantly impact attendance.
3. Holidays and Breaks: Attendance often dips around holidays and school breaks, as families may extend vacations or take trips during these periods. For example, unauthorized absences have been noted to increase around bank holidays and half-term breaks. (The Times)
4. Mental Health and Well-being: Post-pandemic, there's been a rise in absenteeism linked to mental health issues, including anxiety and depression. Students facing these challenges may find it difficult to attend school regularly. (Nesta)
5. Economic Factors: Economic hardships can affect attendance. For instance, students from lower-income families might miss school due to lack of resources or the need to assist with family responsibilities. (NAESP)
6. School Environment: A negative school climate, including issues like bullying or poor student-teacher relationships, can discourage attendance. Conversely, a supportive environment promotes regular attendance.
7. Policy Changes and Enforcement: Stricter enforcement of attendance policies or changes in regulations can influence attendance
rates. For example, increasing fines for unauthorized absences has been implemented to curb term-time holidays. (Financial Times)
I may have missed something but the data shows that authorized absences are decreasing and unauthorized absences are increasing - the overall attendance decreases steadily over a period of a year which shows that illness seasonality is unlikely to be a factor - although a steadily increasing, season-agnostic level of illness in the population cannot be ruled out as one amongst many possible hypotheses. However, this depends on if illness is counted as an authorized absence or not, or whether certain types of illness count and some don't etc. One needs a detailed understanding of the categorization, as well as the likely level of accuracy of the data within it.
Can such information be passed to ChatGPT to refine it's "thinking"?
Here, ChatGPT seems to focus on an annual cycle, but the data is suggesting this is a trend which extends beyond that. What happens if you ask ChatGPT to consider this?
These observations aside, it's a great tool for prototyping such things, but if money, jobs or lives depend on the results, best to have a professional check it's work before committing.
In the end, the human who signs off ChatGPT's homework is responsible, so always keep that in mind when using it. ChatGPT told me to do it will not be a defence.
Thanks Gareth - it's so good to know someone's paying attention.
In this case, ChatGPT focussed on the seasonal cycle because I asked it to. It was a short demo, so I couldn't go to the next level - which would include your points about the going term trend.
Here are all the factors it suggested may be at work. You can see that it includes references to sources, so I think if I had asked for longer term explanations it would have had a go. But it did not spontaneously offer up that possibility.
...
1. Seasonal Illnesses: During colder months, illnesses like the flu can lead to increased absences. For instance, respiratory infections are prevalent in winter, causing higher absenteeism.
2. Weather Conditions: Severe weather, such as snowstorms or heavy rainfall, can disrupt transportation and lead to school closures or increased absences. In regions like Seattle, winter storms can significantly impact attendance.
3. Holidays and Breaks: Attendance often dips around holidays and school breaks, as families may extend vacations or take trips during these periods. For example, unauthorized absences have been noted to increase around bank holidays and half-term breaks. (The Times)
4. Mental Health and Well-being: Post-pandemic, there's been a rise in absenteeism linked to mental health issues, including anxiety and depression. Students facing these challenges may find it difficult to attend school regularly. (Nesta)
5. Economic Factors: Economic hardships can affect attendance. For instance, students from lower-income families might miss school due to lack of resources or the need to assist with family responsibilities. (NAESP)
6. School Environment: A negative school climate, including issues like bullying or poor student-teacher relationships, can discourage attendance. Conversely, a supportive environment promotes regular attendance.
7. Policy Changes and Enforcement: Stricter enforcement of attendance policies or changes in regulations can influence attendance
rates. For example, increasing fines for unauthorized absences has been implemented to curb term-time holidays. (Financial Times)